THE WORLD SITUATION AND OUR TASKS
Under the pressure of the mounting waves of the colonial revolution and the continuous economic and technological progress of the workers' states, the global relationship of forces continues to deteriorate rapidly at the expense of world imperialism. The year 1960 has marked beginning of a new phase in this process of de. terioration, whose importance can be compared only with that of the year 1950 — the first military defeat suffered by American imperialism at the hands of the Korean and the Chinese revolutions.
The military superiority won by the Soviet Union in the missile field; the extraordinary progress of the Cuban revolution right at the border of the US homeland, and its growing alliance with the workers' states; the uprisings in South Korea and Turkey; the humiliation suffered by American imperialism in Japan; the spread of the colonial revolution in Africa, and the growing anti-capitalist ten-
Algerian revolution, which is accepting and receiving aid from the workers' states, and which has entered a new stage with the revolutionary irruption of the Algerian city masses in the struggles in the streets at the time of the December 1960 demonstrations; rapid increase of influence of the Cuban revolution in Latin America, superimposing itself there on a continuous rise in the mass combativity and revolutionary aspirations of the workers and poor peasants — these are the striking recent features of this deteriorated world situation for imperialism. The fact that at the recent session of the United Nations Assembly, the imperialist bloc was for the first time since the creation of the UN put into a minority position on several issues only reflects symbolically this general tendency.
Since the failure of the "Summit Conference," there has opened out before us a new stage of expansion of the world revolution. In Southeast Asia, in Africa, in Latin America, the revolutionary forces are developing in a spectacularly extensive way.
New advances must be expected in all these which will still further alter the correlation of forces in favor of the revolution and to the detriment of imperialism. Never has the latter undergone such strong pressure from the de facto united front between the rising colonial revolution and the workers' states.
short resolution which follows, the scope limits of this tendency are assessed, together with the possible reactions of imperialism, of the Soviet bureaucracy, of the colonial and semi-colonial peoples, and of the workers in the metropolitan countries. Short-term economic, political, and social perspectives are drawn froin interaction of factors. Deeper analysis of the fundamental tendencies of today's world is offered in the documents on the colonial revolution, on economic proon Europe, and on the crisis of Stalinism since the XXIst Congress, approved by the VIth World Congress. This analysis is not repeated here, and is drawn upon only inasmuch as it bears on short-term perspectives. 1. A NEW STAGE IN THE COLONIAL REVOLUTION
Recent events have marked a new stage in the colonial revolution - in a double sense. graphically broadened and socially deepened. end of direct Belgian colonialist rule in the Congo, backbone of imperialism has been broken in Negro Africa, and this continent is for the first time gradually drawn into the process of the colonial revolution. With the rapid progress of the Cuban revolution, heading toward the nearly complete suppression of capitalist private property, a revolution in a colonial country has for the first time led to the birth of a workers' state in Latin America. Also for the first time since 1917, a workers' state been set up by workers and peasants led by forces not of Stalinist origin or under appreciable Stalinist influence. The long-term results of this decisive turn will be
Coming on top of the growing influence of the People's Republic of China among the masses of the colonial and semi-colonial countries, increasing anti-capitalist evolution in and of the anti-capitalist revolutionary possibilities in Algeria, the victory of the Cuban revolution opens a period in which the leadership of the colonial revolution is tending to pass into the hands of proletarian or semi-proletarian forces. The masses will be able to understand more and more clearly the alternative before which they are placed. Either the leadership of the anti-imperialist movement remains in the hands of the
For of petty-bourgeois nationalists who cannot break with capitalism, with the result that the fundamental goals of the colonial revolution will not be. fulfilled; or the decisive break will take place, as in Cuba, and rapid historical progress becomes
The strongest influence of these progressive developments will be felt in Africa, in the Arab world, and in Latin America. The closer alliance between the Algerian revolution and the PR of China, even if intended by certain forces inside the FLN only as a means of blackmailing American imperialism, will strengthen the left tendencies among the Algerian masses, will make any "Bourguibist" compromise solution of the Algerian war nearly impossible, and this will open up great possibilities for spreading the revolution toward Morocco and Tunisia in case of a political defeat and military withdrawal of French imperialism from Algeria or from the greater part of the country. The violent explosion of mass demonstrations in Algerian cities beginning Il December; the victory of the abstentionists among the Moslem voters in de Gaulle's trickreferendum; the continuance since then of an extraordinary atmosphere of combativity in the mechtas - these are indications of the power of the revolutionary forces that any imperialist retreat would unleash in Algeria. It still margin for manœuvres with a view to a hypothetical "compromise," frighten all the "moderate" (and in reality pro-bourgeois) forces in North Africa itself. The revolutionary drive of has constantly gone beyond the political plans of French imperialism. Today it threatens to take from the rear the whole military lay-out of the imperialist alliance in the Mediterranean.
The inability of world imperialism to reestablish its control over the Congo, and the break-up and dismay that are growing in the ranks of its native allies, while the control and influence of the nationalist sectors that stand for Lumumba — supporied by Ghana, Egypt, and other African leaderships — are gradually spreading over the country, also act as a stimulus for breaking up the Central African Federation and for accelerating the plosion of the South African the north and from the south these revolutionary pseudo-"independent" states of the French-African Community possible, as has already been demonstrated by the example and on the contrary are trend toward African unification.
In Latin America, the immediate influence of the Cuban made itself felt above ribbean area, especially in Venezuela, where it has stimulated a new upsurge of mass struggle and a growing differentiation between "left" parties new centrist and left-centrist forces identifying themselves with the Cuban revolution.
Everywhere in Latin America the influence of the Cuban
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL revolution is combined with the effects of an unbearable objective situation (inflation, deficit in the balance of payments, unemployment, ete), 1o nurture strike waves, peasant uprisings, opposition between the petty-bourgcoisie and the bourgeoisie, and general political instability. In this situation, the tendency of the masses to find their own political centralization continues and will continue to find expression through the political role and the embryonic dual power of their mass trade-union organizations in several Latin American countries, creation outbreak of guerrilla hot-spots in other places on the continent.
Guerrilla warfare will tend to neralized form of struggle, not only because of the influence of the Cuban example, but also because of the fundamental characteristic of peasant war that the revolution must take on in most of the countries of Latin America. A predisposition thereto, and even attempts of this sort, are already spreading pretty much everywhere, from Central America to Colombia, Peru, and Paraguay. Guerrilla warfare will more and more become the expression of the more general character of eivil war which is smoldering in several Latin American countries, and one of the tasks of our forces is to prepare themselves and to prepare the worker and peasant vanguard, both theoretically and practically, for guerrilla struggles (research, study of experiences, special cadre schools, etc).
Compared with the situation in North and Central Africa and in Latin America, the recent evolution in Asia is a little less favorable for the anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist tendencies. As a result of the catastrophic policy of the local Stalinist parties, which sometimes comes near to real betrayal, excellent revolutionary possibilities have been missed in Iraq and in Indonesia, thus permitting the bourgeoisie to score and to develop
In South Korea and Turkey, capitalist and pro-imperialist forces have succeeded for the moment in channeling the growing discontent of the masses, which was expressed by the overthrow of the hated Syngman Rhee and Menderes regimes. Above all, capitalist rule in India remains although under the surface tremendous forces of discontent and disruption are steadily building up. The recent events in Laos, however, showed that these pro-imperialist capitalist regimes in Southeast Asia often remain fundamentally unstable.
It is probable that imperialism, which remained almost incapable of any form of reaction to this world-wide process of disintegration of its rule in 1960, will now react, the first place in countries which it considers strategically decisive for their geographic position, their eco-
This reaction will be described below. It will most probably take a double form:
a) very serious financial aid to countries like India, Brazil, Iran,
Venezuela, and perhaps Argentina id whose scope will nevertheless fall more and more behind the growing needs for investments rendered necessary by the wide extent of the revolution if it is desired to slow down, even slightly, its march toward a proletarian leadership;
b) measures to prevent the "spread" of the Cuban revolution in the Caribbean area and the spread of the Algerian rovolution in the Arab world.
But ihe weakest spot, from the point of view of pos ible imperialist reaction, is precisely North Africa, wher de Gaulle's inability to stop the Algerian war might create a new Cuba right on the threshold of Europe. the pressure of American imperialism on the Vth Republic to stop the Algerian war at almost any cost, as long as the coming Algerian Republic is not from the start a workers' state, will become overwhelming.
11
On the other hand it is the combination of the heavy blows received by imperialism and the abrupt new shift in the correlation of forces in favor of the world revolution that has prevented imperialism from making a military intervention in Cuba. Far more than the threat of Soviet missiles — important, it is true, but conditioned by the more general interests of the Soviet bureaucracy - what has checked imperialism's aggressive hand against the Cuban revolution has been the threat of the revolutionary reaction of the Latin American masses.
2. ON THE EVE OF A NEW RECESSION OF THE CAPITALIST ECONOMY
From the economic point of view also, the year 1960 appears to be a turning point in the postwar history of capitalism. Notwithstanding all the hopes US capitalism had pinned on the "Malthusianistic" function of the great steel strike. the end of that strike did not bring any new upsurge in productive activity. On the contrary, the American economy remained on a "plateau" from the beginning of the year, and since the Summer a downward trend set in. Steel production remained at nearly 50% of its capacity, and big unused productive capacity appeared in most of the durable consumer goods sectors (automoelectrical appliances, etc). On top of that, building unemployment practically never fell below 5% labor force, it is correct to state that the American economy is sliding from the 1957-8 recession into a new 1961 recession without ever having experienced a real intervening boom.
In the capitalist countries of Western Europe and in Japan, a different development occurred. These countries nearly all succeeded in escaping a serious recession in 1957-8, especially France, Italy, Germany, and Japan. Contrary to what happened in the US A, they experienced to various degrees a real boom in the years 1959 and 1960. Today they are still suffering rather from the classical phenomena of overexpansion (acute lack of manpower, increasing deficit in the balance of payments, growing credit restrictions in order to prevent full-scale inflation, ete), than from the beginning of a recession.
But already the recession beginning in the American economy has started to influence the economic situation of European capitalism, quite unlike what happened in 1957-8. Exports (especially car exports) to the US A have fallen heavily. As a result, the European automobile industry is already hit by recession. American competition, including price-cut competition, on world markets is becoming heavier. For the first time since 1945, US imperialism is canceling any form of financial aid to European capitalism, even its contributions to local rearmament. As exports to colonial and semi-colonial countries either stagnate or increase at a much slower tempo than the general expansion of production, and therefore a growing part of this expansion must go the mutual exchanges among capitalist countries, ie, to their inner market, it is only a question of time before this expansion knocks up against the limitations imposed by capitalism on the purchasing power of the masses, and in Western Europe a new recession sets in.
Caught in the dilemma of stimulating a new boom by essentially inflationary measures, and thereby increasing international distrust towards the dollar and the decline of the US gold reserves, or defending the dollar with essentially deflationary measures and thereby strangling the boom from its inception, the Eisenhower administration in practice chose the second solution, while even so being unable to prevent a growing deficit in the American balance of payments. No doubt the administration of the newly elected Kennedy will sharply reverse this policy. It will increase public spending in both the armament and the civilian sector (roads, schools, and the health
12 programme), and though it will cut or altogether stop financial aid to capitalist Europe and Japan, it will strongly increase financial help to the colonial bourgeoisie.
These measures might perhaps prevent the development of a recession sharper than thạt of 1957-8, which is a real threat to capitalism during the whole year 1961. They will not be able to offset all the forces working in the direction of a mild downturn of the economy before a new revival.
At the same time, the combination of these financial and economic mcasures, coupled with increased competition, will make a mild recession probable also in most Western European countries, and will above all tend to limit the new boom after the 1961 recession. Though it cannot be predicted with certainty that the forces of expansion have spent themselves in Western Europe and Japan, it is in any case certain that the limits of these forces now clearly appear, especially in the automobile, durable consumer goods, and building sectors.
Any new full-scale victory of the colonial revolution which would cause important country to break out of the capitalist world market (e g, such a victory in North Africa) would strike a heavy blow at the uneasy balance which at present maintains the relative "prosperity" of capitalism in Western Europe and North America, and would immediately increase the dangers of a military counter-blow by imperialism.
3. CONTINUOUS ECONOMIC, TECHNOLOGICAL.,
AND MILITARY PROGRESS OF THE WORKERS
STATES, BUT NEW CONTRADICTIONS FOR THE
BUREAUCRACY
During 1960 the economic, technological, and military advances of the workers' states, especially of the USSR and the PR of China, have stood out in marked contrast to the near-stagnation of the American the confusion, failures, and partial paralysis which seemed to characterize the reactions of world imperialism in the technological, political, and military fields. The advance won by the Soviet Union in such matters as missile technique, space explorations, and automation technology seems maintained or increase. The constant high rate of growth of the Soviet economy makes it probable goals of the Seven-Year Plan will be slightly overfulfilled in the industrial field. At the same agricultural production continues to fluctuate wildly and especially grain production remains inferior to the hopes that Khrushchev put in the exploitation of the "virgin
In China, after the slow-down of the excessive tempo of development which led to the disappointments of
"rectification of production figures," the growth of the Chinese economy remains amazingly high, even if a growing stress is put on agriculture, standard of living of the masses remains low, above all given the tremendous pressure of population growth.
Mutual collaboration and integration among the nomies of the various European workers' increase slowly, opening up new of economic growth through a more rationalized international division
This tendency is being shown in an empirical way, and runs up against great reservations on the part of the Soviet bureaucracy and the various national bureaucracies. But its strength will gradually increase because of the immense pressure of objective needs.
Under these circumstances, the Khrushcher leadership of the Soviet bureaucracy fundamentally holds on to its double line proclaimed at the XXth Congress and confirmed at the XXIst Congress: Khrushchevite "reformism" in internal politics, "peaceful coexistence and competition" in the international feld. This means: economic
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL concessions to the masses and broadening of the of the dictatorship inside the bureaucracy in the USS R; attempts to get an overall deal with imperialism so us to "freeze" the present "spheres of influence"
while supporting the colonial bourgeoisie's efforts to trade the revolutionary aspirations of the masses for a bigger share in capitalist world profit.
Even under this policy of concessions by the bureau-
La social and political crisis is simmering in the US SR. The needs for an increase in production, especially in the agricultural sector, objectively raise the problem of a greater participation in, and of control over, the economy by the masses. The role of the USSR in the world, the coming lo age of new generations the conscious part of whose lives has not been marked by the reign of Stalin, the development of scientific and technical research — all these facts objectively require new quality of leadership for the workers' state. till now the bureaucracy has adapted itself to this change by struggles and purges in its own ranks. But the contiof the development of the USSR, combined with an exceptional revolutionary situation in the conditions for the penetration and reflection of this situation within the USSR itself. It will require a new increases in living standards, before the toilers raise in an insistent and direct way the key problems of the democratization of the state and the over the whole problem of their participation in the management of the factories. But the problems of the social and political the US SR, as well as, for that matter, in the other workers' states, will tend objectively to find expression - even if empirical, deformed, and fragmentary — programmes or programmatic solutions in various (economy, art, etc), before attaining complete and conscious expression in the political field itself. But the whole past and present of the US S R is creating the conditions for the appearance of this expression soon at relatively high levels. The possibilities for the intervention of our movement are growing and real, not only programmatically but also organizationally, even if in indirect forms at a first stage. Just like the course of the world revocourse of the crisis of Stalinism inside US SR is taking on an objectively "Trotskyist" character which opens the doors to Trotskyism and simultaneously requires its intervention, as a programme and as ization, for its revolutionary outcome.
But on the international field, after the policy of "peaceful coexistence" led to disappointments and sometimes even to disasters. Notwithstanding its present superiority in the missile field, the Soviet bureaucracy was not able to wrench any important concessions from imperialism through "summit negotiations." The failure of the Spring 1960 Paris Conference was only, belated reflection of this basie At the same time, Khrushche's attempt to "restrain" Communist Parties to a strategy of permanent submission to the colonial bourgeoisie beheaded the GPs of Egypt and Iraq, destroyed an excellent revolutionary situation in Indonesia, prevented possible progress of the C Ps in several countries of Latin America, and led in the Maghreb and in Cuba to revolutionary explosions in which the C P could not play any important role.
This intolerable situation led to several developments. First of all, oppositional tendencies against this suicidal line developed in several C Ps, either by the whole party (Moroccan C P) or by factions (Brazilian C P, etc). Secondly, the Communist Party of China started to crystallize in the international field a "left opposition" to the
"peaceful coexistence," regarding relations both with world imperialism and with the colonial bourgeoisie. And lastly, the Soviet bureaucracy itself was forced to adjust its line somewhat. Its threats of military intervention
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL the Congo and Cuba were not exactly a faithful translation of the policy of "peaceful coexistence," and the "Moscow Declaration" of the 81 Communist Parties contains the liveliest criticisms of the colonial bourgeoisie.
Il is probable that these three tendencies will continue to find expression in the near future, i e, that the Kremlin will stick to the line of "peaceful coexistence," while adjusting it to be somewhat more "leftjsh" in order not to isolate itself completely from the advanced forces of the colonial revolution. It is also probable that this line will continue to work havoc inside the C Ps of the colonial and semi-colonial countries, where oppositional tendencies will therefore grow; and lastly, that the CP of China will continue to crystallize internationally this uneasiness with "peaceful coexistence" in Communist ranks, and will increase its influence in most Communist Parties and proletarian or semi-proletarian tendencies in colonial and semi-colonial countries.
At the same time, an open rift between the USSR and the PR of China as states is extremely improbable, because their alliance is a vital question for both of them in the face of imperialist threats, and because the economic dependence of China on Soviet help remains very great. The maintenance of the Sino-Soviet alliance, far from being a brake, acts as a factor contributing to deepen the ideological discussions and conflicts which the pressure of the colonial revolution on the one hand, and the Soviet bureaucracy's response of "peaceful coexistence" on the other, tend to stimulate inside the international Communist movement.
What is now in question in this discussion and this inter-bureaucratie struggle is not whether one must be for or against war, but the fundamental problems of revolutionary policy in our period: the nature of imperialism; global correlation of forces among the classes; attitoward the colonial bourgeoisie; problems conditions for a victory of the colonial revolution; transition from capitalism to socialism; conditions for the international building of socialism, etc.
that is of course deformed, present discussion between the Khrushchevist and Chinese wings of the bureaucracy once more raises, draws attention to, and shows the validity of, all our basic ideas on these questions. For to the extent that the logic and dynamics of the international situation become "Trotsky. ist" in fact, the bureaucracy is obliged to face this — in its own way, of course.
There is thus opened up, for the first time since the consolidation of Stalinism, and in a much broader and deeper way than at the time of the Jugoslav "split," a new and decisive phase of the crisis of the international Stalinist bureaucracy, in the context of an unparalleled worldwide revolutionary situation.
Quite apart from the inevitable ups-and-downs of this crisis, and the possiblity of its being apparently patched up, it can be considered that the break between that wing of the bureaucracy that may be properly called opportunist and rightist, and the wing with is deep and lasting, and that it can be foreseen that the former, under the pressure of the latter, will find itself obliged to take the latter into account in its own behavior toward the masses, and even, partially, toward imperialism.
4. REACTIONS OF IMPERIALISM AND THE WAR DANGER
The near-paralysis which imperialism has shown in 1960 when confronted by a new grave deterioration in the global relationship of forces at its expense should be explained by exceptional and peculiar circumstances and not by a qualitative change in the world situation as it emerged from the victory of the Chinese revolution. It would be imprudent and irresponsible to suppose that the events of 1960 have proven that imperialism has be-
13 come a "paper tiger," i e, that it has lost the necessary strength and oppose the advance of the anticapitalist forces the world scale.
Ever since the victory of the Chinese revolution, we have correctly analyzed the existence of a war danger from the combination of two factors: the increasing deterioration of the global relationship of forces for imperialism; conservation of remendous economic and militars resources by world imperialism, in the first place imperialism, which enables it to engage in a desperate struggle for survival by answering each advance of the revolution blow for blow. A change in this conclusion could be made only at the moment we estimate that imperialism no longer has enough resources or power left to defend itself, i e, when we estimate that it will passively capitulate to the advancing world revolution.
Today no economic, political, social, or military factors of importance warranting such an optimistic hypothesis eximperialism in the United States keeps its essential power.
The absence of any coördinated reaction by imperialism to the blows it received in 1960 must be understood, on the contrary, precisely as being a result of an exceptional combination of factors. Undoubtedly the two most important elements that explain this temporary paralysis the unexpected ripening of the colonial revolution, whose leadership, at least in certain countries, is passing over into the hands of forces that have broken with
Within this overall situation there exist other fasuch as the advance of the USER in the missile feld; the political disorganization created by the preseni collapse of Eisenhower diplomacy, and the election campaign in the US A; the confusion and lack of central leadership inside the world imperialist alliance, result of the momentary collapse of the American leadership on the one hand, and of the changing relationship of forces among the imperialist powers on the other (see the theses on economic perspectives); and lastly the element of surprise, i e, the facts that imperialism completely failed to foresee the developments in Cuba and the Congo, and that it was struck by the abrupt spread of the co-. lonial revolution and by its alliance with the workers'
After the blow struck at US imperialism by the Korean war, Wall Street's international strategy was dominated first by the idea of a "roll-back of Communism" after a vigorous rearmament effort, and later by the idea of "negotiating from a position of strength."
But already before the disappearance of Foster Dulles, this strategy had stalled. The military correlation of forces was developing not in favor of but at the expense of imperialism. Far from rolling back Communism, was itself rolled back. The world created by the new wave of the colonial revolution and by the lead of the workers' states in the military field led to a reevaluation of strategy by the leading political personnel of the US bourgeoisie. This became during the Spring and Summer of 1960 when, on the eve of the election campaign, similar ideas about a new world were developed in both the Republican and of transition, however, contributed to paralyze political or military initiative by American imperialism, and in many bourgeois circles conservative re sistance to such a reevaluation continues to be strong even today. The narrow margin of Kennedy's victory, after a Nixon campaign dominated by the absurd theme, "We have never been so strong as today," testifies to this resistance, as is attested in another connection by the opposition between the Pentagon and the State Department.
Nevertheless, it is probable that 1961 will mark the beginning of a sharper imperialist reaction against the
of anti-capitalist forces in the world. Even if the USS R holds its lead in the field of rockets and nuclear weapons, imperialism, by means of an increase in its military expenditures and a greater concentration of effort on rockets and atomic submarines, will tend to build up a strengthened striking force which enables it to keep the possibility of unleashing a total war or initially limited wars, and will hold its own in the field of competition with the USSR in this matter, concentrating all its efforts to prevent the present Soviet lead from becoming completely definitive.
spectacular development of the colonial revolution and the beginning of its entry, at loast in certain couninto the socialist stage, together with the growing difficulties of world capitalism and the growing of European capitalist competition, will impel US imperialism to seek a closer alliance with the colonial and semi-colonial bourgeoisie. The latter, for its part, will tend more closely to combine its blackmailing of imperialism with a growing rapprochement with it for its limited perspectives of economic development. US pressure on Western European imperialism will become heavier and heavier both io strength everywhere to bourgeois and semi-bourgeois forces, and to make broadly in the financial effort in favor of the colonial bourgeoisie and the financial effort of rearmament.
Nevertheless, this tightening of the carried out at a moment when the control of the bourgeoicolonial mass movements is diminishing more markedly than ever in the past, and when the attraction the workers' states for the masses and their de facto allianoe with the colonial revolution are clearly winning out over the declining prestige of imperialism among the bourgeois and petty-bourgeois strata of the population of those countries.
In the immediate future, the replacement resources that the workers' states can put at the disposal of the colonial semi-colonial countries — though increasing rapidly and proving to be, in conditions of parity, infinitely more effective than imperialist still cannot entirely wipe out the attractiveness of such "aid" for the colonial bourgeoisie, all the more so in that the latter appears closely connected with its need to maintain its political regime and the capitalist regime in general.
Even if this "aid" of imperialism could help slow down the deterioration of the economic situation, at least temporarily, in certain countries, nevertheless, in the key countries of the colonial revolution, the effects of such an aid on the standard of living and the revolutionary mobilization of the masses will remain negligible.
Imperialism itself understands this and has even tried to help "rejuvenate" the political and economic structure of some semi-colonial countries. It has favored the military coups in Pakistan, the Sudan, and South Vietnam, has known how to utilize the military uprising in Turkey, well as the student revolution in South Korea, intention of transferring to peity-bourgeois groups less corrupt than old governing cliques and more capable of favoring industrialization.
But even if Washington overcomes the particular economic interests of the US bourgeoisie hostile to that industrialization (as it undoubtedly did in Western Europe at the time of the Marshall Plan), it cannot destroy the feudo-capitalist structure of the colonial and semi-colonial countries, with the colonial bourgeoisie will in the long run fail for this basic reason to stop the
And lastly, the third form of reaction by the imperialists will be a tightening up of their military alliances. The decline of Britain as a world power will find expression in a growing dependence of that country, for defense on US imperialism on the one hand and the NATO forces on the other. The emergence of the
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL NATO alliance as an "independent" nuclear power (ie, the nuclear reärmament of the German and French armies) will lead to a "co-leadership" of the imperialist alliance by US imperialism and Western Europe, which the German bourgeoisie will play a growing role.
The integration of these three reactions will in the near future create a new extremely dangerous turning point in the world situation when imperialism will have got ready a striking force more proportionate to the latest developments in the US SR, and will have tightened its alliance in Western Europe and with some colonial bourgeoisies. From now till this dangerous moment, remains hanging over us, not so much because the Pentagon would launch a suicidal "counter-offensive" as because of a) the dispersal of nuclear bases throughout the world which strongly increases the danger of war breaking out by error or panic; and b) the overwhelming tendency to react in a military way to each new important advance of the revolution, especially in Latin America--a tendency that will more and get the upper hand, and can be transformed into a generalized counter-revolutionary war, and into an international civil war.
5. THE REACTIONS OF THE MASSES IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED CAPITALIST COUNTRIES
Developments in Western Europe, since May 1958 have proved the correctness of the analysis of the document on European perspectives which predicted that the lishment of a Bonapartist regime in France would, the immediate future, be an exception and not a rule, and that everrwhere working class and the morement would defend itself against the capitalist offensive on the economic and political fields.
Events have equally confirmed a) that this offensive would continue as a world-wide phenomen in industrialized capitalist countries, in the first place under the pressure of growing competition; and b) that the degree of resistance of the toiling masses would depend essentially on the subjective factor, ie, on the cohesion and relative combativity of the labor movement. The capitalist offensive was things, by growing anti-union, union-baiting, or anti-strike legislation in the US A, in Japan, in West Germany, and in several smaller European countries. It was expressed by the attempt to set up a government coalition with the extreme right-wing forces (monarchists and neo-fascists) in Italy, in the preparation of anti-democratie legislation in Western Germany and Japan, in the first attempt establishing an extra-parliamentary government in in the reäppearance of right-wing or extreme right-wing forces in Austria and Japan. Economic attacks on the purchasing power of the were pushed through or prepared in nearly all capitalist countries, even if in most cases (the big exception being they were more than offset by the gains in real wages arising from the economic boom.
Violent reactions of the working class against this capitalist offensive and the slow tendency to install a strong state" took place in Japan (student demonstrations, miners
Pete), in Italy (downfall of the Tambroni government as a result of powerful demonstrations by the worker in Britain (wildcat strikes left pressure inside the Labour Party) and especially in Belgium (leftward shift of the reformist party and the trade unions; strikes at the beginning of 1959 and the end of 1960). ¡ The election victories of working-class parties (especially of left parties) in Sweden, and partially in Italy, must be set in the same framework. In Holland, a small increase in working-class combativity (especially as a result of the boom) has found expression in a series of strikes. In Canada, the pressure of unemployment has pushed the unions on the road towards a Labor Party. In Western
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL Germany, which today appears together with France the weakest sector in the Western labor movement, as a result of the cynical betrayals by the turncoats of the reformist Leadership, centres of resistance remain in the youth and the unions, especially in the metal workers' union. And, lastly, in France, the Gaullist regime's inability to end the Algerian war has produced a new rise of militancy both in the economic sector and in the fight against the Algerian war, especially among the youth.
Everywhere the fight against nuclear and general rearmament acts as a powerful stimulus for politicizing the surge of struggle against the capitalist offensive, and in some cases (eg, Japan and Great Britain) gave or gives to this struggle the form of a counter-attack.
The great Belgian strike of 1960-61, which is to be explained in particular by the gradual maturity reached by a broad vanguard inside the workers' movement, broke out as an answer to a first attack against the toiling masses purchasing power. By its exceptional extent and duration, and by forms of organization and struggle that connected up with the most daring experiences in the past, it thoroughly shook the power of the bourgeoisie, and in fact became transformed into a struggle to win transitional demands that only an overthrow of the reactionary government and its replacement by a workers' government could have obtained. It demonstrated the enormous reserves of combativity that remain available in the whole European working class, and the urgent need for the revolutionary Marxist forces to win positions and influence inside the mass movement such that they can fight for leadership against the reformists and Stalinists, in order to save this new coming wave from a new disappointment, if not indeed new defeats.
As the colonial revolution continues to develop, weak. ening the imperialist bourgeoisie and showing it up in defeat or retreat before the colonial masses, at the same time that their struggles serve as examples to spur on the toilers of the capitalist countries to overcome the resistance of their treacherous leaderships and go beyond their reformist methods; as inter-imperialist competition increases and its baneful effects on the workers living standards ofien become clearer; as regional pockets of unemployment spread in many European countries, in the US A, and in Canada; as the resistance of employers to making new concessions to workers grows greater; and as in several countries plans are put into effect to stabilize the economy at the expense of the workers' living standards (in accordance with the French example) — as these things occur and interact, it is probable that the struggles of the working class will increase in number and in extent, and that they will aid the strengthening of left tendencies, especially those basing themselves on the trade unions.
In Great Britain, the open defiance of the Scarborough Conference decisions shown by the Gaitskell fraction will operate in the same direction. In West Germany, the election disappointment due in 1961 be the starting point for a renewed pressure of the left wing in the SPD and in the trade unions. In France, the inevitable defeat of imprialism in Algeria will be accompanied by an attempt by de Gaulle to strengthen the Bonapartist traits of his regime.
But if, between now and the moment of this defeat, the militancy of the masses increases, a new social crisis might very well accompany the weakening of imperialism after the victory of the Algerian revolution. The progress of the Canadian Labor Party, together with the influence of the colonial revolution on the Negro and Puerto Rican population in the US A, and the force of attraction exerted by the Cuban revolution, will permit the left forces in that country to overcome their extreme weakness of recent years.
But it would be a mistake to believe that this near-equilibrium of forces - between the slow pressure towards
15 a « strong state » on the one hand and the defensive struggles of the workers on the other — can be maintained for a long time. The end of full employment, which threatens to occur almost everywhere by the next recession; the growing panie of capitalist and conservative petty-bourgeois forces in face of the deterioration of the world relationship of forces; the risk of a demoralization of the working class if repeated waves of struggles do not lead to decisive political changes or important tangible material results — all these impose a time limit on the present stage of transition, at least in Western Europe and in Japan.
The workers' movement must demonstrate its ability to go over to the offensive and organize the struggle for power through a struggle for decisive transitional aims. The ripening of the conditions for these struggles depends to a large degree on the way the revolutionary Marxist tendency develops, roots itself, and brings its leadership and organizing abilities to at least the key sectors of the mass movement. The Belgian strike has shown the immense possibilities of an offensive reaction by the working class, but it also shows that if that class does not succed in breaking through the limits imposed on it by the reformist leadership - even that which is most leftist — and in going beyond the stage of exerting pressure on the capitalist state without bringing it openly into question, it cannot with all its strength break the barriers and halt the basic measures of the capitalist offensive.
On the contrary, if the workers' movement does not succeed in thus raising its sights in its struggle in this period, the forces of the right, in their turn, might finally break through the barriers under the pressure of economie or political developments — which would upset the awkward balance and produce a grave risk of a repetition of the French model in other countries.
It is the task of the revolutionary Marxist forces - by their audacious intervention, profiting by the objective and subjective developments which are now considerably more favorable to wide-scale struggles by the working class — to enable the European proletariat to overcome the braking action of the reformist leaderships, even the leftist ones, and to organize the struggle with methods and transitional, demands that would lead to a ripening of the conditions for raising the question of power.
In the new world conjuncture, our movement has a great part to play. We are prepared by our whole past for these events, for the "Trotskyist" course of history, and ideologically are infinitely in advance of all the other currents in the workers' movement.
By our patient labor, both daring and methodical, inside the movement, we have here and there attained important positions and considerable experience. In the new favorable world must persist along this path, while broadening our means of action.
colonial work still remains the main field of work.
6. OUR TASKS a) The colonial revolution in the next stage will continue to be the main centre of activity of the International, and the sector where it is possible to achieve the most rapid advances and development of our movement, both because of the existing conditions and because of the development already achieved by the International in a series of colonial and semi-colonial countries. In the colonial revolution, immense forces are developing and expanding, which escape from possible control by the traditional leaderships, whether these be Stalinist, reformist, or bourgeois or petty-bourgeois nationalist. In the colonial revolution's new stage, in which the struggle for a proletarian leadership will become an immediate task in a series of countries, in the stage of its transformation into a proletarian revolution, as Cuba
16 demonstrates, the role of the Fourth International is immense. he road for the more harmonious forces which are the basis for the new leadership of the revolution.
In all these our parties must centre to give impetus to the emergence and organization of this new leadership, to participate, and prepare to organize and lead mass mobilizations through their present organizations or in the forms that they tend to take in these countries (guerrillas; etc).
Our parties must give the programme for the proletarian development of the slogans, and the tasks, but at the the organizers of the ways to this development, even in initially limited sectors, acting as the leadership even without yet being so in fact.
In the next period, there exists for the International the real possibility of leading, or of forming part of the leadership of, the revolution in some countries where the colonial revolution is developing, particularly in Latin America. It is necessary to act, starting right now, to win the leadership of at least some key sectors of the mass movement or mass organizations, from where we can make our programmatie and organizational weight felt, in action, by the overall mass movement of the country, and at the same time test our programme out in action, there before its eyes.
It is through the colonial revolution that there appears to be the most immediate opportunity for the International to develop in order to carry real weight, organizationally, not only from the viewpoint of ideas and programme, with the world revolution as a whole, in the process, already begun, of the ripening of conditions for a new revolutionary leadership to arise on a world scale, in the course of the crisis of Stalinism, in developments in the workers' states, etc. The labor and action of the International must be concentrated especially on this immense perspective.
In this task, we must also turn in the broadest fraternal spirit toward the new revolutionary forces, independent of the traditional parties, that are appearing at the head of mass revolutionary uprisings (Algeria, Cuba, Japan, Venezuela, South Africa, and Negro Africa in general, etc). Without hiding our reservations or our political criticisms toward their generally empirical approach to the revolution, we must make them, as always, after having demonstrated our right to criticism by a participation in and a vigorous support of these uprisings. The middle and lower cadres of these movements consider all problems of strategy or tactics with an open mind, without Stalinist or centrist prejudices. This creates imopportunities for our penetration gramme and action. The special tasks of the movement in the different sectors of the colonial revolution described in the theses on the colonial revolution.
The International must also continue to mobilize and call on the world workers movement defend the colonial revolution — today especially Algerian and Cuban revolutions: tomorrow new blazes will appear. The International must continue, intensify, and coördinate on the world scale the important aid to
Algerian revolution that has already been developed. accord extreme importance lo aid in all forms to the Cuban revolution, by continuing to develop on the world scale the work, already begun, of organization of or integration in defense committees, by calling for or organizing labor brigades, militia brigades, labor mobilizations of workers and students in fense of the revolution, etc; to mobilize the workers of the imperialist countries against imperialist intervensemi-colonial countries for a leadership that uses the present favorable
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL conditions in order to strike mortal blows at imperialism and capitalism. b) The danger of a nuclear world war which would threaten not only civilization but the very existence of mankind is and remains real, imperialism possesses weapons of mass destruction. To fight against this danger by means of propaganda for "disarmament negotiations," petitions, etc, or "economic competition,"
remain generally within the framework of "peaceful coexistence," is a reactionary utopia. The only effective fight against the danger of nuclear global war is the fight for the overthrow of imperialism and capitalconditions make such an overthrow and the fight for the disarmament of imperialism (unilateral disarmament, above all unilateral nuclear disarmament) in all other capitalist countries. We should everywhere he in the forefront of this fight, become its organizers and coördinators on a national and international scale, and try to link it up with the general movement of the working class for socialism, for the overthrow of capitalism.
c) In the US A, the main task for revolutionary Marxists remains more than ever the development of the political consciousness of the working class. The defense of the positions of the unions, which are today more and more threatened; the defense of the Cuban and the colonial revolution; the fight against racial segregation; propaganda about the Canadian example, together with immediate independent political action main weapons for developing a Labor Party based on the di In the workers' states, and espocially in those of Eastern Europe as well as in the Soviet Union, the first rebuilt nuclei of our forces must work out a programme of transitional demands which permit the formation of a new vanguard of the working class, in the present climate of "reformist" illusions on the one hand but of growing freedom of thought and non-conformism on the other. In the Sino-Soviet conflict we give critical support to the Chinese CP and try to promote an international discussion inside the Communist movement around the problems raised in that fight.
e) In Western Europe, the general task remains one outlined in the document on European perspectives; essentially through the medium of entrism, to build up, inside the mass organizations and the labor movement, strong left wings which are capable of playing the role of rallying points and centralizers for various left-wing initiatives of the vanguard or of the masses, and which give initiatives a central political perspective immediate programme of action, based upon transitional demands specific for each country. Special attention must be paid to the situation in Great Britain, where today strongest left-wing tendency in Western extremely favorable conditions for a intervention by revolutionary Marxism. effort must also be made for the establishment of links and organizations in Spain and Portugal, where forces are assembling which are preparing a new upsurge of the labor movement.
The example of the Belgian strikes of 1960-61 puts on the agenda a more resolute activity in favor of a Workers'
United Front in Europe, of a cartel regrouping all trade- union forces with a view to joint actions (especially to generalize the 40-hour week), but also to assert an active solidarity in case of an advanced struggle in a single country, so as to organize genuine international sympathy
In general, we appear in all countries as the force which most clearly, expression to the immense revolutionary possibilities of our period.
At a stage when, in the various sectors of the revolutionary movement and the world revolution, the conditions for *
FOURTH INTERNATIONAL new revolutionary leadership to arise are ripening in a more concrete way, when everywhere forces are arising and driving toward this new leadership that escapes from the control of all the traditional organizations of the working class, the International appears as the centre which, through its programme and its participation in the world revolutionary process, impulse for the emergence and organization of this future leadership.
We are entering a new stage of expansion of the world revolution. International must play therein the role of the conscious, dynamic, organizing, active revolutionary Marxist force, setting out from a series of key positions already won or being won, and by means of its understanding and mastery of the revolutionary process, acts as the guide in the process whereby the new leadership matures and emerges. For this, the International roots itself, and will root itself ever more solidly, in those sectors especially which at this stage to be the essential and accessible ones, those which today
17 reflect most directly today the "Trotskyist" character of our epoch: Latin America, Africa, Asia, and the colonial revolution in general; and the workers states.
At the same time it will act as the force capable through its positions in the big mass organizations, of spurring on and thoroughly exploiting the extremely broad and renewed revolutionary possibilities which are openis to sive imperase ape fusion ties insule worly to give impetus to the fusion of the whole revolutionary movement in the next period at a higher level, and fully to weld these possibilities and this activity in the capitalist countries with those developed by the masses of the colonial countries and the workers' states.
It is in this task that the International is building and will build its cadres in this period, its organizations for this process, in a word, its Bolshevik cadres and organizations fit to play their role in the leadership or together with the leadership of the mass movement, which continu. to be the indispensable weapon for the worldwide victors of socialism.